Forecasting Employee Attrition: How to Get Ahead of the Curve

3 minute read

Posted by Chris Platts on 6 February 2023

Employee attrition can be costly for any business. It can mean losing key talent, and it can also come with hefty recruitment fees. In order to ensure that your organization’s attrition rate is as low as possible, you must be able to accurately forecast employee attrition. But how do you do this? Let’s take a look at the steps involved in successful employee attrition forecasting.

Identify Key Indicators of Attrition

The first step in forecasting employee attrition is to identify the key indicators of when employees are likely to leave your company. These indicators may include job dissatisfaction, lack of growth opportunities, being passed over for promotions or raises, or long-term absences due to illness or other issues. Additionally, factors such as age, gender, experience level and tenure are all important indicators that should be taken into account when forecasting employee attrition.

Analyze Your Data 

Once you have identified the key indicators of employee attrition, it’s time to analyze your data. This means looking at all available data points—such as past turnover rates and exit interviews—to determine which factors are most commonly associated with employees leaving your organization. This will help you pinpoint trends and patterns so that you can better anticipate future departures. Additionally, analyzing your data will help you identify any potential areas of improvement within your organization that could reduce employee turnover in the future.

Develop Strategies for Retention   

Once you have identified potential areas of improvement within your organization, it’s time to develop strategies for retention based on this insight. This could include creating new initiatives aimed at increasing job satisfaction and career development opportunities; creating flexible work policies; or implementing improved onboarding processes for new hires. Additionally, investing in employee engagement initiatives such as team-building activities or wellness programs can also help reduce turnover by keeping employees engaged and motivated within their roles.

Conclusion

Forecasting employee attrition is an important part of any HR strategy because it helps organizations stay ahead of the curve when it comes to managing their workforce more effectively and efficiently. By following these steps—identifying key indicators of attrition, analyzing your data and developing strategies for retention—your organization will be well-equipped to create meaningful forecasts that help keep costs down while ensuring a strong culture and productive workforce overall. With accurate forecasting in place, businesses can better plan for future hiring needs instead of reacting after people have already left the company – saving them both time and money in the long run!

Further reading

Share

The ThriveMap Newsroom

Subscribe for insights, debunks and what amounts to a free, up-to-date recruitment toolkit.

About ThriveMap

ThriveMap creates customised assessments for high volume roles, which take candidates through an online “day in the life” experience of work in your company. Our assessments have been proven to reduce staff turnover, reduce time to hire, and improve quality of hire.

Not sure what type of assessment is right for your business? Read our guide.

Other articles you might be interested in

Banner image for this post

21 ideas to build a strong remote work culture

How to build remote work culture More than half of employers now offer remote work. Yet over a third are actively pulling people back to the office, citing drops in productivity and culture. The problem isn’t location. It’s design. Most companies are still running office-era systems in a work model that no longer has an […]

Continue reading
Banner image for this post

The Candidate Expectation Gap: Why Filtering Faster Is Not the Same as Hiring Better

Why Most Hiring Systems Measure the Wrong Things Modern hiring processes are built to move people through a funnel. Applications in. Screens out. Interviews. Offer. Start date. Most of the metrics that define success sit at the top of that funnel. Speed to hire. Time to shortlist. Cost per hire. Interview to offer ratio. Those […]

Continue reading
Banner image for this post

The 10 Best Recruiting Podcasts for 2026

Hiring is changing fast. AI, assessments, candidate expectations, tighter regulation, and constant pressure on time and quality mean recruiters need more than recycled tips and shiny tools. They need clear thinking, real-world insight, and perspectives that challenge how hiring actually works. Podcasts remain one of the best ways to stay sharp, especially for in-house recruiters […]

Continue reading

View all articles